Amazon and AEON MALL

　Considering the 1 hour border in the suburbs, it is expected that there is going to be a large number of Kougaidanchi that will no longer have demand in some areas of Chiba, Ibaraki, Saitama, and Kanagawa. This is because in Japan it has been confirmed to some extent that population declines are expected, as local cities shrink and employment decreases. In other words, the Kougaidanchi of local cities that had been established as a location within 1h from them can no longer be established as a suburb because it is beyond the 1h border of Tokyo's 23 wards, where the employment remains. Of course, as the population decreases, so does the number of households. Or even if the number of households grows, because the number of household members is decreasing, the required total floor space is reduced. Of course, there is already a large surplus of housing stock with just the current population and number of households, so a group of Kougaidanchi that is not useful neither as a place of life nor as a tourist destination loses demand and loses its place.

　In fact, this is not a story of the future. In Chiba Prefecture, Kougaidanchi that are about 40 years old since their construction are quite larger in terms of the number if compared to the new housing constructions and, since it is a peninsula, there are not many distribution routes, such as highways with five lanes, so commuting traffic is expected, then Ichihara City, Sodegaura City, Kisarazu City, Kimitsu City, and Wakaba Ward and Midori Ward in Chiba City, which have been established as suburbs of Chiba City and Keiyo Industrial Area, now have the number of vacant houses that cannot be sold starting to increase. Moreover, considering the number of single-person elderly households as vacant home reserves and the number of households in which the subsequent generation has purchased and settled in another location, many new detached houses will be unoccupied in the next 10 years. Even if inherited, they become properties where dismantling or registration costs are more expensive than selling prices, so they are neglected by the beneficiaries and finally destined to become a vacant house that can not be bought or sold without mutual agreement between siblings. It is an unbelievable situation, but kurosawa kawara-ten has inherited an empty house that is no longer needed. In other words, as of 2018, the property price is getting obsolete in Kougaidanchi. This means that a 100sqm (30 tsubo) 3LDK detached house with a garden can be purchased for tens of thousands of yen, even though it is 40 years old.

　It feels that every local city and the streets in Japan that have already existed have not been able to keep up with the social changes and technological evolution of the past decades and that it will also feel soon to be difficult to keep going. Since urban planning and urban development or administrative systems in the Tokyo metropolitan area have not changed much from the way of thinking and manner as when the population was increasing, basically thinking about creating something public. They do not seem to think they have lots of them already. In the first place, the notion that the building and infrastructure can be demolished and thrown away because they are a little old is probably based on the idea that the population and economy are rising. It seems that they think that resources will be supplied indefinitely, so there is no mechanism or effort to bring innovation, or it is not designed to be very effective. Plus, the cities will change as more and more shopping areas such as buildings and department stores are being metabolized more and more because of the economic stagnation and the young population decreasing, so vacant tenants and properties increase and become uninhabited land. As a result, the number of parking lots in front of the station and the shopping streets with empty spaces will increase rapidly. The area of business has a clear rise and fall, and if it becomes useless, you have to leave somewhere immediately, so truly the problem is not that big, but in the case of people who have settled for the vibrancy of the area, even if they do not have the convenience and bustle of the past, few will move away from it and move on. That's why these residential areas are currently facing the big problem of not knowing what to do after a large number of vacant houses have emerged, and the government has not yet drawn the next figure of them. There has been no debate about what should be a residential area in the future.

　However, I don't think there is only a bad side to this story. If you don't need the house, or whether the ones to inherit the property do not need it, plan to give it to someone after you are no longer using it. You can declare that the inherited succeeding generation is firmly uninterested in the property and check whether it is necessary to come to an architectural office or a real estate agent like us. If they only can do it, you can even get a detached house with a garden, it can be obtained at a reasonable price with infrastructures such as water and electricity. It would be so wonderful. There are quite a lot of architects and artists, or people who are planning various things, and those people would be very happy to be able to try something and practice.

　To be honest, there is not much difference between the products that are currently available in the suburbs and in urban centers. But rather in those suburbs the much cheaper price of food, depending on the price of land, other things that were only sold to bookstores and department stores so far, are now so easy to get through Amazon and AEON MALL(Japanese chain shopping mall).

　When the music consumption was through CDs, you had to go to a big record store and you couldn't get anything other than a major singer. Now, if you sign up for Apple Music or Spotify, you can get music from all over the world from the comfort of your home. And, of course, you don't have to go to rent movies anymore. Even regional differences, such as the lack of local programs like TV stations, are no longer a problem with the appearance of Netflix and Amazon Prime services. Only experiential consumption and activities are waiting for a little improvement in technology such as VR and MR, but rather, you can get it if you go to Tokyo once a month. Even so, the expansion of LCC routes has made it possible to travel all over Japan for around 10,000 yen, so even being in the Kanto area is becoming unnecessary.

　If so, of the life income you use, in urban centers, it would cost about 50 million yen to purchase a generic newly built house. If you purchase a common pre-owned house, spending about 15 million yen, you can renovate with a good quality material such as a solid board or stone and a design fee for the architect. In simple terms, the amount of money that can be freely used increases by about 30 million yen. Or is it not necessary to make 30 million yen?

　30 million yen means that, if you go to Hawaii on a single-family trip and spend 500,000 yen, you can go 60 times. Even if you go twice a year, you can go for 30 years, until your children get married. If you like a car, you can change to a new 3 million yen car 10 times. If you ride it for 5 years, you can enjoy 50 years. It is possible to renovate a home over 10 million yen 3 times. Because it is a budget that allows you to renovate from scratch if it is an apartment, if you listen to the saying that a house can not be satisfied if it is not built at least three times, you can do it four times, so you can be surely satisfied and end your life right. Of course, you can renovate the two houses as you like for 30 million. If you can buy a second house, you can live in a very large apartment. Or is it not a dream to live in a spacious garden without interfering with the neighbors? If you don't have to make 30 million, you can retire 5 years earlier if you have an annual income of 6 million. In terms of hourly wage conversion, working for 7 hours a day for about 40 years is better. Starting at the age of 22 and working until the age of 62, you can be free up to 16:00 every day. In 20 years, it can go up to 15:00 after the age of 42. In other words, since somebody has decided that the housing stock is seen as a legacy that our predecessors have built so far is worthless and must be demolished, long useless properties put pressure on the administrative budget moreover, what is going to make people’s environment worse. But, in fact, if you take a cold view of the building industry, especially developers of house makers and newly built condominiums, I think it should be the basis for a wide debate about the fact that, in Japan, it would be not necessary to build any new house at all. From a different perspective, isn't it possible for Japan to become the one country in the world where houses can cost almost nothing? Of course, there are some people who have to live in certain places, even if they are rented from time to time, so it doesn't really mean that everyone can live for free. Still, if the monthly rent or mortgage of about 100,000 yen disappears and is used in daily life, and if people don't feel the risk of losing their homes, their consumption may increase. You may be able to spend money on things that do not simply satisfy survival functions and stomachs, such as architectural design and art. The amount of lifelong learning and cultural activities may increase from the margin of daily life. You may be able to send your child to a second university. If you don't have to work to buy a house, you might not need to join such a big company. Working 3 days a week may be enough, and it may not be necessary to ride a crowded train. Still, how much would the quality of life fall?

Do not choose Tokyo

　In this way, there is already a situation that makes the suburbs even more advantageous than the urban areas. That is why Tokyo has become very unattractive, and not just Tokyo. Fast fashion stores such as UNIQLO and H&M have entered Ginza's main streets and long-established department stores in the centers of Yokohama, Chiba, and Omiya. (While writing this text, H&M withdrew from Ginza, but I think it may be a sign of lifestyle change.) If you walk around the city and want to take a break, you will enter Starbucks in any city. If there is a new restaurant that you can only eat in a big city, the menu will be offered by a major chain restaurant months later.

　The personality and special feelings that Tokyo and big cities had so far are giving up from themselves, and the resulting physical content has turned into a large suburb. Quality like the suburbs and quantity like the cities, such cultural qualitative hollowing is occurring in big cities. This may also be due to the fact that information from all around the world can be obtained on the Internet without time lag. The result is that it is now possible to imitate what is popular in New York directly in Tokyo without observing the personality of Tokyo and developing through the Japanese perspective and context. As a result, the composition of the suburbs is transformed into Tokyo as a consuming area that imitates other leading cities.

　If that is the case, the suburban areas no longer need to see Tokyo and other big cities. Tokyo is a mimicry of the world's leading cities, a second-decoction, and a low-priced version one, so it is better to go directly to the original through the internet or using LCC. And everyone will be aware of it soon. Wherever you go around the world, capitalism conquers, a lot of cultures are shared, and there is not much difference in food, clothing, lifestyle, and values. Even the trendy styles are not entirely unknown. Regardless of how popular you are on social media or whether you are attracting attention for a moment at it, the ones who are important to you and are by your side will be completely indifferent to that. That's why to actually get people to spend time together and to create new things, it takes a day-to-day good and compassionate communication with family and friends and having them actively involved in part or all of your life. Perhaps you're starting to realize that it's all about it after all.

　Even if you notice it, it will not be directly linked to the behavior. Because there is a relationship between the current life, the current way of living, and the current relationships, it is not possible to throw away the current life and live a different one immediately. Still, it is good to observe what is often in Tokyo and what is happening in this city. Go to some department stores and multi-brand boutiques(select shops). It's good to see what, except for the brand tag, is different and how much of the same thing is in different places. You'll realize that there are not so many things that you really can only get there, and plenty of similar things. Try entering a cafe or restaurant. The place that is said to be as high-grade as possible or the place that has performed well with some scoring is good. It might be delicious. But is it really something you can't taste in your own kitchen in your home or home town? And is it something you have to bother to report to your friends with a photo, or is it like a friend who has seen it yearning from the bottom of their heart? Is it something you have to have every day? And such specials shouldn't have to be every day. How about going to New York once a year? Rather, I wonder if Tokyo is such a place. Even if you don't usually go to Tokyo, if you have occasional needs or as one of the options for a day trip destination, as long as Tokyo doesn’t start to shine again like before, it will continue to be cool to stay a little distance away from it, like the suburbs and beyond. It is very scary at first, but certainly, no matter how not cool it is, Tokyo's power is tremendous and it is not easy to shake it off. There are a few things you need to get out of it. One is finding someone who has already left Tokyo. Of course, the same goes for other local cities, but if you can find someone who has already gone out and can be your model, the first step will be easier. The important thing from here is how you can enrich yourself. For example, if you move to the suburbs to a vacant house, you could make a lot of changes to create your own favorite space. And also a garden. However, if you become busy soon after moving, you will spend your days with the place that you don't like so much. Making your home and surroundings you really like is one of the conditions to cancel the influence of places such as cities and suburbs. Another would be to find your favorite place. If possible, it's not in Tokyo. It can be a rural landscape swaying in the wind, a forest path, or a sunset view of a housing estate. There may be fewer places in the city where you can see yourself in the curtain wall and take a picture, but if you have someone take a picture, you will surely find your favorite place where you can see yourself super cool. And the most important thing is to meet someone who has a close relationship and a pleasant relationship. It's very difficult to continue doing things alone, whether in the city or in the suburbs. On the other hand, wherever you are, if you have someone who will affirm you and stay with you, you can overcome some difficulties.

　If you can leave the city in this way, or if the distance to the city is a little farther away, if those people increase a little more, tomorrow's suburban housing will surely be a lively and wonderful place.

The Next Industries to come

　Of course, the advantage of the suburbs is also from the viewpoint of work. The suburbs are currently thought to have no jobs or good jobs. That's right now because it's thought that you can't get hired by a big company or a high-paying company if you're not in an urban area. However, it is clear that Japanese industrial structure and the age group involved in it are too poor, and the percentage of primary industries and the employment rate of young people are too low in the first place. Economically, secondary and tertiary industries may be efficient and easy to grow, but considering a human society that cannot live without fundamentally eating, the primary industry should be the first. And it may be natural to think that the primary industry will be balanced.

　I think that it may be a matter of time for the primary industry to return to the main street of the industry along with major changes as in the information revolution in the late 1990s. It is premised that changes in the industry cannot be easily predicted because there are various impacting variables such as the international situation and the attitude of the government, technological innovation and changes in the natural environment. It is true that there is an inseparable relationship, and the power map has changed significantly from Pax Americana since the Cold War. And Europe, the United States, or Japan are not the center of the universe, and the position of that country is greatly influenced by how it can relate to Asia, the Middle East, Africa, South America, etc. The title of Japan's second-largest economy and the position of the great manufacturing country in the secondary industry seems to have passed on to the next huge factory in the world. Trying to increase the competitiveness of the tertiary industry, If you think about it, it is natural that the story of the primary industry will come out as long as it doesn't grow dramatically as a service industry nation. Since Japan has strengthened the secondary and tertiary industries and has neglected the primary industry, the primary industry has become less than 10% of the ratio of each industry to GDP. * (Http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/manage/20110905/222480/?P=2). The food self-sufficiency rate is less than 100% in both calories and production. If the international earning power is lost little by little, you will not be able to buy food that cannot be self-sufficient from the outside. But you have to eat. Then make it. Of course, not only that, but I do not know how much the world population will increase in the future, but even if it stops at the current population, if living standards and styles are raised globally, countries that have food will become stronger. It will be clear. If you think that the power of making something simply is missing, it would be natural to think that the primary industry will be refocused. Furthermore, even if you want to attract tourists from all over the world, the culture and landscape are mostly rooted in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries industry, so it will inevitably be impossible for the primary industry to decline further. And of course, there should be a culture rooted in the secondary industry, so it should be worth leaving or continuing in the suburbs.

　Considering them, agriculture, forestry and fisheries industry are natural as the next industry, and the suburbs are in a very advantageous location compared to urban areas. The Kougaidanchi is mostly surrounded by fields and forests and is very close to the sea. In addition, the site is large and it is easy to make vegetable factories and processing plants, and it can be transported to and from airports and ports for export without going through Tokyo or other locations. There would be no wonder if what used to be a housing estate for industries was replaced by one for agricultural production corporations. No, rather, it is incredibly incredible to abandon and demolish a house or land in 40-50 years, and it is rather natural to be diverted as a place for people engaged in the primary industry. Isn’t it?

　Farming that depends on farmers up to now was consistent with its life. Naturally, the residence was for those who cultivate the field, a warehouse for storing farm equipment, a preparation ground, and an office for serving customers and keeping books. It seems that the life of the farmer who is still maintained by many elderly people cannot be taken over by the next generation. And those who are maintaining the field ahead of the next generation's awareness want their children to choose another life. Up to now, the eldest son inherited the family business and maintained it as a normal, and what was thought to be no choice among the ordinary ones, the level of education has risen, society is steadily modernized by information and globalization As it turns out, the will of individuals will be respected, not where they were born. Still, the farmland is made up of grandparents who can't abandon their ancestral land and family business, parents who can't completely abandon it, and is closed by a child who has nostalgia only in one corner of his heart and is waiting for the end.

　There are already companies that have begun businesses on abandoned farmlands and students who are trying to create new uses there. Even if it is not settled by selling and buying, if it is rented, the farmers who own the land may open the land to those who are trying to challenge new agriculture. If that happens, there will be people who cultivate fields as workers managed by corporations. These people will commute to the field. If so, you will need a home that is reasonably close to your workplace. At that time, the Kougaidanchi would be revived as a dedicated residential area. However, instead of conventional agriculture, the next agriculture should be updated with information technology. Rather than being a manual worker, the workers will be mainly engineers who maintain and coordinate AI-driven robots and environmental control opportunities. So, people who have just left the engineering college and now live in urban areas will move about a fraction of the time when the complex was formed, rather than a large number. They will want a pleasant cafe that can be used on a daily basis and a nice park where you can relax. To meet such demands, stores that have been crushed and empty houses should become such nice cafes and daily necessities’ stores.

　If that happens, nature and the existing Kougaidanchi will be a better place to live, closer to work as a residential area for new industries.

　This is the next appearance of a slightly lucky Kougaidanchi that will naturally regenerate as before due to social trends, but considering the speed of changes in lifestyle and industry in recent years, it has been 5 years since then. In the not-too-distant future of about decade, such places are likely to increase.